NIO delivered second highest ever of 3,533 vehicles in July 2020, increasing by 322.1% year-over-year

According to the press release from NIO click here to read NIO delivered 3,533 vehicles in July 2020, representing a robust 322.1% growth year-over-year. The deliveries consisted of 2,610 ES6s, the Company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 923 ES8s, the Company’s 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV. As of July 31, 2020, cumulative deliveries of the ES8 and the ES6 reached 49,615 vehicles, of which 17,702 were delivered in 2020.

Nio delivered the second highest ever in their history despite floods and production halts.

“In July, we are pleased to have achieved the second-highest monthly delivery results despite the impact on productions due to a 5-day suspension of manufacturing to prepare for EC6 productions and other flood-related supply chain challenges,” said William Bin Li, founder, chairman, and chief executive officer of NIO. “More proudly, we have achieved a record-high monthly order growth, attributed to a stronger demand of the ES8 and ES6, together with the increasing EC6 orders, thanks to the continuous support of our users. We believe we will be able to increase our production capacity significantly to support higher deliveries in the third quarter of 2020.

NIO lost 5 days due to flooding and EC6 production which means they delivered 3533 in 26 days. That is 135 cars per day so the lost 5 days they could have delivered 679 more which adds upto 4212 cars. Bin Li said they see a very strong demand for Ec6 orders there new model. September deliveries will include Ec6 according to Bin Li so September will see a record sales number.

Nio was up 6% in premarket and investors are feeling more positive with the strong guidance and they are expecting a turnaround in the earnings report which will be released in a week August 11 according to NIO.

We believe Nio is a Strong buy. Investors are seeing the value now as NIO was able to produce stellar sales consecutively for the last 2 months.

We see upside movement in the stock which will continue till their earnings report on August 11,2020. If they deliver a good earnings this stock is poised to explode. 

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Nio delivered a total of 4,152 units in July from Chinese news outlet [Unconfirmed]

According to the Chinese news website autohome.cn Weilai [Nio] Automobile delivered a total of 4,152 units in July, of which 2,645 were ES6 and 1,507 were ES8, a record delivery volume.

Today August 03, NIO officially announced the correct numbers. Chinese news outlet autohome.cn was a fake report and misleading one. Please refer here for the correct report.

It looks like the Chinese source which we referenced was taken down. We have a screenshot of the news which translates to the below in English 

The Below report was a fake report which was circulated yesterday...Please refer here for the correct report

Full translation of the news reported as per autohome.cn 

 Weilai [Nio] Automobile delivered a total of 4,152 units in July, of which 2,645 were ES6 and 1,507 were ES8, a record delivery volume. The decline in ES6 sales is to give capacity to the more expensive new ES8. ES8 is expected to continue to rank firmly among the top ten medium and large SUVs. At present, due to parts procurement problems, Weilai's production capacity has reached its limit. Previously, the founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai revealed in an interview with Chewei New Media that Weilai is planning to expand production capacity and it is estimated that production capacity will increase significantly in September. In September, Weilai will usher in a new car EC6 and a 100-degree battery. With the increase in delivery of the new ES8, the reputation of the new ES8 is reported to be huge. The sales volume of Weilai in September is expected to rise to a higher level. According to Weilai President Qin Lihong, Weilai’s previous average delivery price was 450,000 yuan. As the proportion of ES8 rises, this average selling price will continue to rise. As a result, NIO will become the only car brand in the Chinese market that can buy more expensive products. This will give great support to the Weilai brand, and it is also a reflection of the increasing acceptance of the brand by users.

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Technical Analysis: What happened on Friday [July 31] The Short Term and Long Term Support Level on NIO Inc. (NIO)

NIO Inc. (NIO) has seen some recent action in the market and its shares closed at $11.94 on Friday July 31,2020. Overall the market was red but when stocks entered the green territory towards the end NIO was kept below $12. One reason might be the $12 contracts expiring on Friday and the big boys were in play to make sure that it stayed below $12. There was no negative news for Nio on Friday except for the China tensions which will have no effect on Nio stock as discussed on my previous post. Nio only operates in China market and China is the only country which is seeing a big rebound in the economy as most of the countries are still fighting covid-19. Nio will report record sales number tomorrow and shorts will be burned tomorrow for selling it on Friday. 

Long term investors will be rewarded if they hold this stock for long term. 

 

Nio will enter the bullish territory starting Monday.Once it breaks the $13 resistance it should rocket up to the previous high of $16. 

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NIO Price Target Analysis and its set to defy doomsters and open higher, levels to watch.

• NYSE: NIO is set to end the week and the month on a positive note. 
• Nio Inc's shares are seen as expensive while it remains unprofitable.
• Lessons from Elon Musk's Tesla are promising for the firm. 

Is a market capitalization of around $14 billion rich for an electric vehicle company? Some analysts suggest that NYSE: NIO current valuation – with shares trading above $12 – is expensive. The primary reasoning for the downbeat assessment on Nio Inc - ADR stems from a basic business lacking – profitability.

However, it is essential to note that Nio, based in Shanghai, China, was founded only in late 2014 and may need more time to turn a profit. The largest EV firm, Tesla, struggled not only with income but also with cash flow. 

Nio shares were beaten more because of the china-US tensions. It should be noted that Nio don't sell cars in US and there profits come only from china markets. Whatever might happen between US and China it will have no effect on Nio china. Chinese people feel more anti-american than before which will help NIO over its rival Tesla. Like trump China wants them to buy more Chinese manufactured cars and there are more incentives for Nio than Tesla.

On the other hand, Nio has the backing of Beijing. Authorities may encourage locals to purchase the company's cars and thus create a national champion. Elon Musk's Tesla may be the market leader – but while it sells in China, the local rival may gain market share. 

Tense Sino-American relations may weigh on Nio's sales outside its home country, but the vast Chinese market allows ample room for growth. 

With all the above reasons I strongly feel Nio will reach $50 soon.

The next levels to watch are the weekly closing high of $12.70, followed by the mid-July peak of $14.09, and then by the high close of $14.90 achieved earlier in the month. The stretch target for bulls is $16.44, the 52-week high.

Support is found at Monday's low close of $11.69, followed by $11.09, a level recorded in the previous week. The psychologically significant $10 level is next.

Nio Inc - ADR has made a long journey from the 52-week low of $1.19 and is valued at over 11 times that price. 

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NIO July 2020 sales estimates

Based on the data collected from public discussion forums, Nio press release we have consolidated  here. 

Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO (NYSE:NIO) said it delivered 3,740 vehicles in June, up 179% from a year ago, a record monthly total that powered a record quarterly total for the company as well. 

What NIO said

Here are the key points from NIO's statement.

• NIO delivered 2,476 of its five-passenger ES6 SUVs in June, and 1,264 of its larger ES8 models. A year ago, in the ES6's first month of sales, it delivered 413 ES6s and 927 ES8s. 
• For the second quarter, NIO delivered a total of 10,331 vehicles, up 191% from 3,553 in the second quarter of 2019. 
• That result was arguably ahead of NIO's guidance. NIO said in May that investors should expect its deliveries to "more than double" in the second quarter from the year-ago period; they nearly tripled. 
• Year to date through June, NIO delivered 14,169 vehicles. 

Overall NIO deliveries were 11,348 in 2018

Overall NIO deliveries were 20,565 in 2019

2019 Q1: 3,989

2019 Q2: 3,553

2019 Q3: 4,799

2019 Q4: 8,224

Covid-19 hurt NIO's momentum in early 2020

Jan 2020: 1,598

Feb 2020: 707

Mar 2020: 1,533

Apr 2020: 3,155

May 2020: 3,436

June 2020: 3,740

Li Bin has stated that current production capacity is 4,000 per month if supply chains have recovered from Covid-19. I'm going to guess NIO will deliver slightly more than their stated capacity for July and August.

July 2020: 4,150- 5500 (Note:July 18 NIO announced 50,000 cars sold., so July might come 4900 plus sales)

Aug 2020: 4,500-6000

My estimated deliveries to finish out 2020.

Sept 2020: 5,100 

Oct 2020: 5,500 

Nov 2020: 6,000

Dec 2020: 7,500

Data credit: Yahoo finance public forums.

If these estimates turn in to reality, NIO would deliver 48,000 cars in 2020 vs 20,565 in 2019 and 11,348 in 2018.

There are more positive news coming up in August and I am sure the stock will pick up speed and reach $16 by end of August first week. NIO is like investing in Baidu 5 years back, Nio has all the foundation built for it to compete with Tesla in China. Nio should be easily reaching $30 by end of this year. 

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NIO BaaS is revolutionizing the Electric Vehicle world

Today, cnTechPost reported that NIO (NYSE:NIO) is planning to set up a battery asset management company in August. This move is part of the company’s plan to separate its vehicle and battery units, and should enable NIO to launch a battery-as-a-service (or BaaS) offering. The new company will be led by NIO Energy.

NIO’s battery swap technology

Currently, NIO offers battery swap technology as part of its broader BaaS strategy. This offering allows users to replace their empty batteries for charged ones, eliminating the time needed for charging. The service is currently free for NIO users.

NIO announced in May that it had completed 500,000 battery swaps. This news boosted the company’s and market participants’ confidence that the technology could work. 

NIO’s vision of renting batteries as an individual asset

In January, NIO chairman William Li said, “We consider that the separating consumption of vehicles and batteries based on battery swapping can benefit users through using battery packs that are chargeable, replaceable, updatable and recyclable. Battery will be rented to users an individual asset.”

With time, the initiative should do away with the need of owning a battery. Under the BaaS service, NIO plans to sell cars with the option of not owning the battery. Consumers may also opt to rent batteries, reducing their initial investment in owning a car. The option could also help them stay up to date with improvements in battery technology.

Financing for NIO’s battery asset management company

NIO is currently seeking financing for the company, and could bring in investments from large energy funds. cnTechPost reports that Contemporary Amperex Technology may be interested in investing in the initiative.

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What's going with NIO

Chinese premium electric vehicle start-up Nio has seen its stock rally by about 50% in July, driven by strong Q2 delivery figures and a general increase in demand for stocks of EV companies. Below, we take a look at some of the recent developments for NIO.

In early July, NIO published its second-quarter delivery report, indicating that it delivered 10,331 vehicles, marking an increase of 191% year-over-year and about 169% sequentially. The company has benefited from pent-up demand post the Covid-19 related lockdowns, and its total deliveries for the first half of the year now stand at 14,169 cars.

Last week, the company provided more details on its EC6 crossover SUV, noting that it would be priced at RMB 368,000 (about $53,000) before subsidies. The vehicle, which is a coupe-style version of the ES6 mid-sized SUV, will start deliveries this September. However, it will be interesting to see how it fares when Tesla launches the Model Y compact SUV in China in early 2021. While pricing for the made in China Model Y isn’t known yet, we think it’s likely that it will undercut the EC6. For instance, the Model 3 sedan sells for about $41,000 before subsidies in China and the Model Y in the U.S. costs about $4,000 more than the Model 3, indicating that a price of under $50,000 for the base model is quite likely.

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